BANKING WATCH
Real-time US Financial Crisis Monitoring
Tracking debt, delinquency, and systemic risks across 5,000+ financial institutions
US Total Debt
Delinquency Rate
Unrealized Losses
FDIC Problem List
Office Vacancy
High CRE Exposure
The FDIC Can't Cover Your Deposits
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insures $10.7 trillion in deposits. Here's what they actually have to back it up.
Data source: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile Q2 2025. The FDIC has a $100B credit line with the U.S. Treasury, but even combined, this covers less than 3% of insured deposits.
$517 Billion in Unrealized Losses
Banks are sitting on massive paper losses from bonds bought when rates were near zero. If forced to sell, these become real losses that wipe out capital.
These losses don't appear on income statements under current accounting rules. Banks can hold these "held-to-maturity" securities and pretend the losses don't exist—until they need liquidity.
What Triggered This?
- Fed raised rates from 0% to 5.5% in 18 months
Fastest rate hike cycle in 40 years
- Banks loaded up on low-yield bonds during COVID
Bought 10-30 year bonds yielding 1-2%
- Bond prices move inversely to rates
Higher rates = lower bond values
Why It Matters
- Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in 48 hours
Forced to sell bonds at a loss for liquidity
- Signature Bank and First Republic followed
Same problem: unrealized losses + deposit flight
- $517B still on bank balance sheets
Problem remains—just hidden from view
The Fed's Emergency Backstop
Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) ended March 2024
The Fed created BTFP to let banks borrow against underwater bonds at face value—a lifeline that prevented more bank runs. That program has ended. Banks with unrealized losses are now on their own.
Data source: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. Unrealized losses on securities held by FDIC-insured institutions.
The $1.5 Trillion CRE Time Bomb
Office buildings sit empty. Loans come due. Banks hold the bag. 1,697 banks have dangerous exposure to commercial real estate.
Highest CRE Exposure Banks
Banks with dangerous concentration in commercial real estate loans
CRE exposure as percentage of total capital. FDIC guidance considers >300% CRE/capital ratio as elevated risk. Data from Federal Reserve stress testing and FDIC Call Reports.
63 Banks on the FDIC Problem List
The FDIC maintains a confidential list of banks at risk of failure. While they won't name names, the numbers tell a troubling story.
Problem Bank Trend
What Makes a "Problem Bank"?
Composite rating for Capital, Assets, Management, Earnings, Liquidity, Sensitivity
Inadequate capital, poor asset quality, or earnings problems
Management deficiencies or compliance issues
Higher probability of FDIC intervention or closure
Why Won't the FDIC Name These Banks?
Publishing the list would cause bank runs. Depositors would flee, making failure a self-fulfilling prophecy. So the FDIC keeps the list secret—leaving you to guess if your bank is on it.
Data source: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. Problem bank counts are published quarterly but individual bank names are confidential.
Borrowing at 15% to Pay Dividends at 5%
Corporations are running a legal ponzi scheme: issuing junk bonds at double-digit rates to pay shareholders dividends they can't afford. When the music stops, who's left holding the bag?
The Corporate Ponzi Scheme Explained
Borrow High
Issue junk bonds at 11-15% interest rates to desperate yield-seekers
Pay Low
Use borrowed money to pay 5-9% preferred stock dividends to shareholders
Repeat
Keep borrowing to service old debt. Pray rates don't rise. They did.
Nearly 50% of new corporate debt goes to stock buybacks and dividends—not R&D, not factories, not growth. Companies are borrowing from bondholders to pay shareholders, hoping to refinance before the house of cards collapses.
The "Zombie Company" Problem
Zombie companies—those that can't cover debt payments from earnings—survived for years on cheap refinancing. With rates now at 5%+, they're running out of runway. When zombies die, they take jobs with them.
Data sources: NY Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase research, Moody's credit ratings. 30% of stock buybacks (2016-2017) were funded by corporate bonds.
$1.2 Trillion in Credit Card Debt
Americans are drowning in credit card debt at record levels, paying 22%+ interest while banks report record profits. The squeeze is on.
The Debt Explosion
Increase in 4 years
Who's Hurting Most
Delinquency in lowest-income ZIP codes grew 63% from Q2 2021 to Q1 2025
The Interest Rate Trap
At 22.3% APR, a $7,886 balance costs $1,760 per year in interest alone. Minimum payments barely cover interest, trapping cardholders in a debt spiral while banks post record profits.
Data sources: Federal Reserve G.19, NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel, LendingTree 2025 study.
An Unaudited Crypto Company Owns More Treasuries Than Germany
While China dumps US bonds, Tether—a stablecoin company based in the Virgin Islands with a history of fines and zero audits—has become the 17th largest holder of US government debt.
The Tether Red Flags
Minimal regulation. Recently moved HQ to El Salvador.
Big Four firms refuse due to "reputational risk"
Only fully backed 27.6% of days from 2016-2018
Covered up $850M loss through Crypto Capital Corp
$1B+ in illicit USDT transactions on Tron (2025)
Absolute control by founders, minimal governance
Who's Really Buying US Treasuries?
SELLING (2024-2025)
BUYING (2024-2025)
The Uncomfortable Question
An offshore crypto company with zero audits, $59M in fines, and money laundering investigations is now one of the biggest buyers of US government debt. When traditional allies sell, who's really propping up the Treasury market?
Data sources: Tether Q3 2025 Attestation, CFTC, NY Attorney General, Paradise Papers (ICIJ).
Everything Goes UP Except Your Car's Value
Groceries up 25%. Rent up 30%. Insurance up 40%. But your 5-year-old car? Down 46%. You're paying more for everything while your assets evaporate.
Inflation Since 2020
Your Car's Value
The Car Buyer's Nightmare in Numbers
The 5-Year Reality Check
Plus you paid $8,800 in interest, $14,000 in insurance, and $3,000 in repairs. Total 5-year cost: $48,800 to drive a depreciating asset.
Worst Value Retention
Luxury and EVs lead the depreciation race to the bottom
Best Value Retention
Trucks and Japanese reliability win the depreciation war
The Wealth Transfer
Banks profit from your loan interest. Insurance companies profit from your premiums. Dealerships profit from your trade-in. Meanwhile, the asset you're paying for loses $4,600 per year in value. Cars aren't investments—they're wealth extraction machines.
Data sources: Black Book, Kelley Blue Book, iSeeCars, Cox Automotive Manheim Index, BLS CPI.
$3.98 → $7.48 for Water?!
Yes, a 24-pack of bottled water nearly doubled in 5 years. Here's what else exploded while your paycheck stayed the same.
The Bottled Water Explosion
It's just water. In a plastic bottle. And it nearly doubled.
The Grocery Store Horror Show
Bottled Water (24-pack)
+88%Dozen Eggs
+237%Ground Beef (lb)
+35%Gasoline (gallon)
+51%Bread (loaf)
+45%Milk (gallon)
+25%The Egg Apocalypse
A dozen eggs went from $1.47 to $4.95. Bird flu, supply chain chaos, and corporate price gouging turned breakfast into a luxury item.
Your Wage Growth
Average wages grew ~16% from 2020-2025. Meanwhile, eggs are up 237%, water up 88%, and insurance up 56%. You're falling behind.
The Shrinkflation Double-Whammy
Not only are prices up, but packages are smaller. That "family size" is now what "regular" used to be. You're paying more for less, and the package redesign makes sure you don't notice.
Data sources: BLS Consumer Price Index, FRED, average retail prices 2020-2025.
Why 5 Million Uber Drivers Got Played
Increased demand + surge pricing = drivers make more money, right? Wrong. Welcome to Platform Economics, where the house always wins.
The Platform Playbook
Subsidize
Pay drivers well, charge riders little. Burn $10B+ to kill taxis and monopolize
Hook
"Be your own boss!" 5M drivers bought cars for their new "business"
Squeeze
Take rate: 20% → 42%. Driver pay falls while rider prices rise
Profit
Uber: $1.9B profit (2023), $7B free cash flow (2024). Drivers: $8/hr
Uber's Take Rate Explosion
Seattle Drivers Union: Uber's per-trip take jumped from $4.69 (2019) to $13.06 (2024) — +178%
What Platforms Take
Amazon takes 48% of marketplace revenue. More than half goes to the platform, not the seller.
The Full Uber Driver Expense Breakdown
25,000+ miles/year
Rideshare endorsement required
46% loss in 5 years
Oil, tires, brakes
15.3% (no employer match)
You clean it
What Uber Drivers DON'T Get
Pay $500+/month yourself or go without
"You're not an employee" - deactivated = $0
Injured on the job? That's your problem
Sick day = $0. Vacation = $0
The Car Trap
"Be your own boss! All you need is a car!" 5+ million drivers bought or financed vehicles for their Uber "business"—faster than they lined up for their 3rd COVID shot.
- • -46% depreciation in 5 years
- • 100,000+ extra miles driven
- • $8-15/hr net after all expenses
- • No trade-in value left
The Endgame
All those repossessed Teslas with worn-out interiors and high mileage? Perfect candidates for autonomous Uber fleets. Drivers built the network, trained the algorithms, and will be replaced by the cars they couldn't afford.
- • Mapping data collected from drivers
- • Demand patterns learned from drivers
- • Customer habits trained by drivers
- • Drivers? No longer needed
Platform Economics = Wealth Extraction
Uber takes 42%+ of every ride. Amazon takes 48% of every sale. The "gig economy" transferred all risk to workers (car, insurance, gas, repairs, health) while platforms keep the profit. This group of people got totally played.
Data sources: Seattle Drivers Union, MIT CEEPR Study, NELP Report 2025, UC Berkeley Labor Center, Uber Annual Reports.